In a recent Monocle interview posted this past Sunday, Richard Tolmach of the California Rail Foundation gives the California High Speed Rail Project (CAHSR) a 50/50 chance of happening.

Weighing in its favor is the sheer size of the regional air market between the Bay Area and Southern California, the largest in the country. This makes the project attractive to investors. But the current route alignment sets it at a potentially insurmountable disadvantage to both auto and air travel.

“Over the last number of years, there has been some land speculation in various places, so the line goes via a slightly odd route that is 100 miles longer than the highway. So high-speed rail starts with a handicap,” explains Tolmach, in terms of being “competitive with the energy utilized [per trip] and with the cost of driving and air travel.”

“There is a 50 percent chance it won’t happen, because the CAHSR Authority will expend all of its planning money before they can package a project that’s workable.”

According to Tolmach, some Japanese and European companies (Kawasaki, Bombardier) are interested in bringing their own funding sources, subject to a significant project redesign that would make the capital costs more affordable and the overall system financially viable to operate.

Indeed, Tolmach’s assessment of the project’s main design flaw underscores the tension between the public mission of the high-speed rail project – to serve as an economic development tool that will connect the struggling Central Valley  to urban job markets – and the private imperative to maximize profit if the project is to attract a sufficient amount of capital to move forward.